North Korea Projects Image of Stability as Questions Remain About Roles of New Leader, Military

Assessing the stability of North Korea in the wake of Kim Jong Il's death has been a matter of reading between the lines, but there are signs that the communist country's government is at least trying to project the appearance of a smooth transition.

Kim's son, the baby-faced twenty-something Kim Jong Un, is the presumed successor, raising questions about whether the country's military leadership will rally behind him, as it did behind his dictator father. In recent days, state media has disseminated images showing the younger Kim in the company of generals who supported Kim Jong Il.

The footage of the generals and Kim Jong Un, hailed as the military's "supreme commander," was shot on Saturday and shown on state TV on Sunday, as they paid their respects to the late leader.

A source in South Korea told Reuters that it also marked the first time that one of the country's more powerful behind-the-scenes player, Jang Song Thaek, was seen on state TV in a military uniform. Another Reuters source suggested that the country was moving from strongman rule to government controlled by multiple leaders.

The ongoing shift of power poses new challenges for the Obama administration, which has reacted cautiously to Kim Jong Il's death.

For the past 60 years, the "hermit kingdom" has vexed the United States and its allies with war, nuclear tests, missile launches, belligerence and bellicose bombast. But since he took office, President Obama has had to deal with the country at perhaps its most secretive point: an unclear succession at the very top at a time of deep concern about the stability of the regime.

The kid gloves treatment accorded to the North's youthful new leader has attracted criticism from some who see this is a moment to make a forceful case for dramatic reform and regime change.

But without solid intelligence of the opaque transition process and fearful of misunderstandings that could lead to provocations with the notoriously erratic North, U.S. officials concluded that the best course is to say little, wait and watch.

"All I can say is that we're monitoring the situation closely," White House press secretary Jay Carney said on Wednesday as North Korean state media broadcast pictures of wailing mourners, apparently overcome with grief. "Kim Jong Il had designated Kim Jong Un as his official successor, and at this time we have no indication that that has changed."

Carney added: "We hope that the new North Korean leadership will take the steps necessary to support peace, prosperity and a better future for the North Korean people, including through acting on its commitments to denuclearization."

Nearly three years ago, Hillary Clinton on her first trip to Asia as secretary of state stunned diplomatic circles with a frank appraisal of U.S. concerns amid rampant speculation about the health of Kim Jong Il, who had suffered a stroke in 2008, and his choice of a successor.

"If there is a succession, even if it's a peaceful succession, that creates more uncertainty and it also may encourage behaviors that are even more provocative as a way to consolidate power within the society," Clinton told reporters on her way to South Korea on Feb. 20, 2009.

Her remarks on a previously taboo subject sparked great debate. In Seoul the next day, she expressed surprise at the uproar, noting that reports of Kim choosing his youngest son Kim Jung Un to succeed him had "been in the news for months."

"I don't think that it's a forbidden subject to talk about succession in the hermit kingdom," Clinton said. "In fact, it seems to me it's got to be factored into any policy review that one is undertaking. ... I think it would be irresponsible for it not to be factored into what you were thinking about."

That same month, U.S. diplomats were scrambling to collect any information they could about Kim Jong Un from South Korean, Chinese and Japanese officials and experts, according to leaked State Department cables published by WikiLeaks.

Unfortunately for the Americans, their interlocutors had sharply divided opinions, according to the cables. Some predicted the North Korean regime would collapse politically within two to three years of Kim Jong Il's death. Others foresaw a power struggle between the young and untested Kim Jong Un and rivals in the elite but differed over who would prevail. Others believed there would be little change.

One apparent area of convergence, however, was that most South Korean experts believed the challenge for the younger Kim would come after his father's death.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.